If LIBRA and MELANIA hadn't emerged, would the crypto world really be better off?
Original Title: What if $MELANIA was never launched?
Original Author: 0xFinish, 0xTrack Member
Original Translation: ChatGPT
Editor's Note: The author reflects on the birth of PumpFun, the Bitcoin halving, the differences between 2021 and current scams, and how to adapt to a new market cycle. The author reminds investors in the current market environment to be mindful of limited liquidity, have a clear exit strategy, stay on top of market narratives during rotations, avoid excessive FOMO, always keep some profits in stablecoins, and continue to accumulate long-term quality assets like BTC.
Below is the original content (slightly rearranged for readability and comprehension):
This cycle has been very challenging, worse than any cycle before. Many even refer to it as the "scam cycle" due to the increasing number of "rug pulls" and rug projects causing concern.
The purpose of this article is to look back and try to predict what lies ahead for those of us who only want to succeed.
The Birth of PumpFun
On January 19, 2024, PumpFun was born, forever changing the face of meme coins. Everyone had the opportunity to launch a token, regardless of their age, profession, or nationality.
At the time, the hype was not significant, but PumpFun started to gain momentum in March 2024, with early projects like $MICHI and $FWOG. Anyone could launch a meme coin in seconds, transforming the entire market.
As more tokens emerged, PumpFun became a platform for fair distribution, free from insider rug pulls. While it seemed attractive, the extraction fees were substantial.
Since its launch, PumpFun has earned over 2.86 million $SOL, equivalent to around $5.77 billion. It may be one of the most successful startup projects ever.
This liquidity has been permanently withdrawn and pocketed by PumpFun's developers. However, I believe this is a key reason that sets this cycle apart. We will delve further into this shortly.
Bitcoin Halving
Next is a key moment in the current cycle. On April 20, 2024, the Bitcoin mining reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. When the first ETF was approved on January 10, 2024, many thought it might be a "sell the news" event, but we actually witnessed a new ATH.
ETF + Halving is the strongest bullish combination for BTC, as many have been waiting for institutional liquidity to start entering the market. And that's exactly what happened. Fidelity, BlackRock, and MicroStrategy are buying in every day, continuously injecting liquidity into the market.
This gave people hope. They thought this bull run would be similar to the previous ones, but this time, everything was different.
The market is always against the masses, meaning if retail is bullish, the market is likely to fall, and vice versa. Perhaps this is what's happening here, and we are about to reveal this.
Your Expectation Is the Issue
Looking back at the 2017 and 2021 cycles, the situations were very similar. Making money wasn't hard, and it didn't require any special knowledge. There were 10-20 mainstream coins that everyone knew, and everyone was accumulating.
First, BTC rose, then ETH followed, acting as the beta asset of the cycle, usually yielding higher returns. After that, we moved from ETH to other mainstream coins, then to some small-cap coins.
That's why many people in 2024 decided to skip the BTC phase and directly invest in ETH or other altcoins. The logic is simple. If ETH can rise 5x, and larger altcoins can rise 10x, why wait for a 2-3x return on BTC?
This logic is very straightforward; however, the "public" did not consider that this cycle might be different. The number of projects, tokens, and meme coins is 100 times more than before, and everyone rushed to buy familiar tokens like $DOT, $ATOM, $ADA, expecting the promised 10x returns.
As a result, when liquidity started flowing into shitcoins, the number of new projects was too high, leaving old projects behind instead.
Scams in 2021 vs Now
Just saw @Overdose_AI make a valid point and decided to chime in here. Going back to 2021, the scammers of the "Rug Pull" were quite creative, as long as they weren't too greedy, they almost let everyone jump ship.
· Terra $LUNA controlled by Do Kwon
· FTX controlled by Sam Fried
· 3AC invested a long time before the crash
· Alameda drove different narratives and manipulated the market
Scams back then were relatively challenging and required a certain level of intelligence. Whereas now, people simply leverage big brands, celebrities, and even rulers of nations to promote their garbage projects.
People have become accustomed to gambling, FOMOing into $TRUMP and $MELANIA, deciding to make up for losses through $CAR or $LIBRA, only to end up losing all their money.
I know 10 to 15 exceptional traders who once invested in $LIBRA through DCA, seized the opportunity, waited for a pullback, while insiders made over $1 billion of pure profit off of them.
Time to Adapt
It's time to understand that the cycle will never be exactly the same; shitcoins are not just Beta versions of BTC or ETH; they are an entirely different niche market that brings more risk and more opportunity.
You can't just go long on $DOT or $ATOM because BTC hit a new high, as that was effective in 2021.
Make no mistake, I still believe in BTC and think it will remain one of the best compounding assets for the next 10 to 20 years, but the returns will be akin to stocks, no longer the easy 200% annual growth.
Conclusions to Remember in This Cycle
1. HODLing is what fools do; if you didn't sell at the right time, you're screwed. @MustStopMurad has been telling you to HODL, and almost all of his meme coins have plummeted 80%-90% since ATH.
2. You need to have a clear sell strategy. I know this may sound harsh, but that's how the market is; you must determine your exit before making a trade.
3. Narrative Rotation, recently, we have experienced crazy market rotations from meme coins to AI Agents, and then to $TRUMP. If at any point you didn't keep up, you can almost guarantee that most of your gains will be wiped out. Always follow the market narrative and remember that liquidity is limited.
4. "Timely" is always better than "Early." Don't overthink, find the right time to enter, but also don't be too anxious to wait.
5. Always convert a portion of your profits into a stablecoin. No matter how much you believe in a protocol, continue to accumulate BTC, which is still better than most stock or real estate opportunities.
To be honest, I don't know if we are going to see a decline or a rise next. Currently, I have positions on both sides. If the market declines, I will continue to buy more BTC and $ETH.
If the market rises, I have enough altcoins to avoid FOMO, and I know I can profit through trading and help my followers.
I hope this cycle is not over yet. Currently, BTC's consolidation will determine our trend for the next 2-3 months.
You may also like
Galaxy Deep Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Landscape of Prediction Markets?
Binance Research: RWA Market Expected to Expand Nearly 6x from Early 2025, with Public Equities and Onchain Payments Heating Up Together
In June, Binance Research said in its monthly market report that the real-world asset (RWA) market is expected to grow by about 589% from the beginning of 2025. Bond- and money market fund-related RWA expanded by about $6.5 billion, up 83% year over year, while publicly traded equity RWAs grew by about 422%. The report also noted that monthly crypto debit card transaction volume exceeded $747 million in May, up 48.6% year to date.
Japan to Assess a Framework for Yen Stablecoins and Crypto ETFs as Asia’s Compliant Payments Narrative Heats Up
Recently, according to the original report, Japan is considering the launch of yen stablecoins and cryptocurrency ETFs. Public information remains limited at this stage, and there is still no complete policy text, regulatory draft, or clear implementation timeline, so this is better characterized as a “policy discussion” rather than formal implementation. The original wording also noted that advancing stablecoin regulation in Asia is driving XRP usage and supporting growth in the XRPL ecosystem. However, based on currently available public information, there is not enough evidence to directly establish a clear causal relationship between this round of discussion in Japan and XRP or XRPL.
ZachXBT: Humanity private key leak and abnormal surge in H token should be viewed separately
On June 9, according to related disclosures, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted an update on Humanity’s roughly $31 million security incident, saying that after further analyzing fund flows, he currently tends to believe the project team was not involved in an “inside job” or a self-staged attack. According to him, the official explanation about the private key leak was broadly accurate, but before the token unlock, the price of H had been artificially pushed higher, and the hacker later took advantage of that market environment; therefore, the private key leak and the earlier abnormal price pumping should be regarded as two separate and independent events. This reframing has shifted the market’s understanding of the nature of the incident. Earlier discussion around Humanity had focused on whether the team directly participated in the attack or used the security incident to cover up internal operations. ZachXBT’s latest remarks shift the focus from “whether it was self-theft” to “whether there were pre-unlock market structure issues.” He also questioned whether the team may have.
Morning Report | OpenAI has submitted an S-1 registration statement draft to the U.S. SEC; Morpho completes $175 million financing
Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market
Wang Chuan: How can one not feel anxious after the neighbor Old Wang made thirty times profit by investing in storage stocks? (Seven) - A quarter-century cycle
Cryptocurrency CEXs are flocking to sell US stocks, and traditional brokerages are facing an "uninvited guest."
$75 billion in foreign capital has fled, and South Korean retail investors have absorbed it all using leverage
Japan’s Three Megabanks Plan Joint Stablecoin Issuance in Fiscal 2026
MUFG, SMBC, and Mizuho reportedly plan to jointly issue fiat-pegged stablecoins in fiscal 2026, signaling Japan’s growing push into bank-led digital payment infrastructure.
Humanity Discloses H Token Dual-Chain Attack Details, With Losses on Ethereum and BSC Exceeding $36 Million
Humanity said the H token attack across Ethereum and BSC caused more than $36 million in losses after leaked ProxyAdmin keys enabled malicious contract upgrades and token minting.
White House Discusses CLARITY Act With Law Enforcement Ahead of Senate Vote
The White House discussed the CLARITY Act with law enforcement ahead of a Senate vote, focusing on illicit finance risks and developer protections.
Bitcoin Trading Guide 2026: Strategies for Experienced Traders
What Is XAUT and PAXG? Why Tokenized Gold Is Booming in 2026
Will the SpaceX IPO Hurt Bitcoin? Here's What Traders Are Watching
Foreign selling in the South Korean stock market accelerates, with cumulative net sales reportedly reaching $75 billion this year
On June 9, The Kobeissi Letter, citing Goldman Sachs data, reported that global investors are selling South Korean stocks at an unusually rapid pace. In the latest trading session, foreign investors sold about $801 million worth of Kospi constituent stocks again; total foreign outflows last week reached about $10 billion, and the market has been in net foreign selling on nearly every trading day over the past month. According to the data cited in the report, foreign investors have sold about $75 billion worth of South Korean stocks so far this year. Meanwhile, South Korean retail and institutional investors together recorded roughly $69 billion in net buying over the same period, suggesting that the market’s main buying support has come from domestic capital rather than returning overseas funds. The information currently disclosed still mainly comes from The Kobeissi Letter’s retelling and Goldman Sachs data summaries, while public details on the statistical period and the specific definition of “selling” remain relatively limited.
Fortune Warns of Strategy’s Financing Structure Risks as Bitcoin Premium Narrows
Fortune warned that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury model faces growing financing risks as MSTR’s net asset premium narrows and preferred stock dividend pressure increases.
Ferrari Challenge Le Mans: Carl Moon to Dominate in WEEX Livery
Galaxy Deep Research Report: How Hyperliquid's HIP-4 Upgrade Changes the Landscape of Prediction Markets?
Binance Research: RWA Market Expected to Expand Nearly 6x from Early 2025, with Public Equities and Onchain Payments Heating Up Together
In June, Binance Research said in its monthly market report that the real-world asset (RWA) market is expected to grow by about 589% from the beginning of 2025. Bond- and money market fund-related RWA expanded by about $6.5 billion, up 83% year over year, while publicly traded equity RWAs grew by about 422%. The report also noted that monthly crypto debit card transaction volume exceeded $747 million in May, up 48.6% year to date.
Japan to Assess a Framework for Yen Stablecoins and Crypto ETFs as Asia’s Compliant Payments Narrative Heats Up
Recently, according to the original report, Japan is considering the launch of yen stablecoins and cryptocurrency ETFs. Public information remains limited at this stage, and there is still no complete policy text, regulatory draft, or clear implementation timeline, so this is better characterized as a “policy discussion” rather than formal implementation. The original wording also noted that advancing stablecoin regulation in Asia is driving XRP usage and supporting growth in the XRPL ecosystem. However, based on currently available public information, there is not enough evidence to directly establish a clear causal relationship between this round of discussion in Japan and XRP or XRPL.
ZachXBT: Humanity private key leak and abnormal surge in H token should be viewed separately
On June 9, according to related disclosures, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted an update on Humanity’s roughly $31 million security incident, saying that after further analyzing fund flows, he currently tends to believe the project team was not involved in an “inside job” or a self-staged attack. According to him, the official explanation about the private key leak was broadly accurate, but before the token unlock, the price of H had been artificially pushed higher, and the hacker later took advantage of that market environment; therefore, the private key leak and the earlier abnormal price pumping should be regarded as two separate and independent events. This reframing has shifted the market’s understanding of the nature of the incident. Earlier discussion around Humanity had focused on whether the team directly participated in the attack or used the security incident to cover up internal operations. ZachXBT’s latest remarks shift the focus from “whether it was self-theft” to “whether there were pre-unlock market structure issues.” He also questioned whether the team may have.
Morning Report | OpenAI has submitted an S-1 registration statement draft to the U.S. SEC; Morpho completes $175 million financing
Morning Report | BitMine increased its holdings by 126,971 ETH last week; trader Eugene announced his exit from the crypto market
